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With primary elections in full swing, and a pivotal election year ahead, the nation is anxious to know the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election nearly 11-months out. In the meantime, JCI has conducted a survey to gather perspectives on the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and other related issues, which provide insight into what we might see unfold in the coming year.
Election Predictions
To no one’s surprise, voters are once again expecting a tight race this cycle, with over 31% of survey respondents foreseeing a slim margin of victory (51-49 split) for our next President.
The favorite to win the Presidency among survey respondents is the incumbent President Joe Biden (59.4%), with former President Donald Trump (28.1%) ranking second among respondents. Governor Nikki Haley trailed behind both (9.4%). Although it appears voters are expecting a rematch of the 2020 election, it is worth noting that Haley was the only other candidate selected among respondents.
State of the Economy
The state of the economy and its influence on elections: it’s a tale as old as time. In 2024, the economy remains among the most pressing issue for voters.
While a significant portion of respondents expressed positive sentiments about the state of the economy, citing strong macro-level indicators and low unemployment rates, others highlight pressing concerns such as inflation, rising gas prices, and the high cost of goods.
Suggestions by respondents for addressing economic issues are equally diverse, with calls for fiscal restraint, tax reform, and a focus on social determinants of health and workforce diversity.
Foreign Policy
Foreign affairs, and the protection of U.S. interests across the globe continue to be of concern to many Americans.
Some respondents expressed support for President Biden, citing his administration's global perspective and the belief that it safeguards U.S. interests. Others cite concerns about Biden's age and health but still lean towards his approach for pragmatic reasons, noting competent appointments to important roles.
Nikki Haley was also mentioned favorably by some for her foreign policy stance, emphasizing the need to prevent Ukraine from falling to Russia and addressing challenges posed by China, Iran, and Hamas.
On the contrary, some expressed dissatisfaction with all candidates, citing a broken system built on oppression. Additionally, a preference for non-war leadership is voiced by some, favoring any candidate other than Biden.
Key Issues in 2024
We asked respondents to select what they believe to be the most pertinent issues of 2024. The usual suspects ranked among the top as more than half of survey respondents mentioned the economy, housing, foreign policy, and climate change. The economy was named by 21 of our 32 respondents, followed by concerns surrounding housing and homelessness being mentioned by 18 of 32 respondents.
Below is a list of key issues in order of priority for 2024:
Economy
Housing/Homelessness
Foreign Policy
Climate Change
Healthcare
Abortion Rights
Social Issues
Immigration
The survey was distributed to over 1500 of our newsletter subscribers in late December and shared via social media in early January. We invited our subscribers to participate and provide their diverse range of opinions on the 2024 election season, who folks think will win, and what the top issues will be in 2024. We believe this survey is a small glimpse into what appears to be another eventful and highly contentious election cycle.
A special thank you to all survey participants for sharing your valuable insights.